Modeling the Impact of the COVID-19 Third Surge on Automotive Digital Marketing
This session, originally presented by C-4 Analytics on the Digital Dealer platform, seeks to distill complex market dynamics into a simple model using three straightforward charts. As the market enters the third COVID surge (following those in March and July ), the goal is to compare historical trends to inform automotive digital marketing decisions as the weather turns colder and people move indoors.
The premise is that the most elegant solution is often the simplest. Using truth, facts, and logic, this model aims to serve as a starting point for dealers to navigate the chaos.
The Three Core Graphs
We examine the relationship between dealer behavior (spending), market performance (sales), and public health data (COVID cases and deaths) during the first two surges to predict outcomes for the third.
1. Vehicle Sales (Source: Automotive News)
Vehicle sales, measured in thousands of units, show the market's recovery and volatility.
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In April, sales were at 717,000 units.
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Sales increased to 1,365,000 units by October.
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Sales reached 1,543,000 units in December.
2. Dealer Digital Ad Spend Index (Source: C-4 Analytics & Industry Sources)
This index reflects how dealer spending reacted to the surges.
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Digital ad spend dropped to 0.58 in April.
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Spending recovered to 0.93 by October.
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Spending was highest in December, indexed at 1.0.
3. COVID-19 Deaths (Daily) (Source: CDC.gov)
The public health data shows the severity of the initial surges.
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Daily COVID-19 deaths peaked at 2,349 on April 30th.
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The second major peak of 1,371 daily deaths was recorded on July 31st.
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As of October 31st, daily deaths were reported at 869.
The Combined Truth: Modeling Success
The webinar combines these trends (SPEND, SALES, and COVID ) to provide insights into future strategy. Historical data shows that while vehicle sales and digital ad spend plummeted during the initial public health crisis (April), both recovered significantly by the end of the year, even as a second and third surge began.
The lesson derived from the historical performance of dealers is simple: "Cars are sold, not bought". Therefore, the right strategy, informed by data, is required to move vehicles, especially during periods of low consumer confidence. Consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in six years in August.
The goal for dealers now is to apply these historical lessons to the ongoing challenges, ensuring that digital strategies are powerful and effective.
Watch the Full Webinar
For a deeper dive into these topics and to hear directly from Rob Stoesser, Vice President, OEM Relations, watch the full webinar below.